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  • Matthew

    Member
    October 7, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    Thu 7 Oct 2021 The entry dated Tuesday BELOW is still relevant but some way off. On the 1 hr, there is a combo between 1.3622 and 1.3651 (this includes 3 pip buffer), timed between 1400 and 2300 on 5th Oct 2021 for an entry short.

    Tues On the daily, there is a combo RBDBD combo with an entry at 1.3661 and stop at 1.3754 (93 pips) with a DBD control dated 17 Sept at 18.00 hrs. This area can be reduced on the 2hr combo dated from 23 sept 1400 to24 sept 0800, entry at 1.3716, stop at 1.3751 (34 pips) PLUS buffer. To be safe, suggest buffer extends to control of the candle 17 sept (1600), up to 1.3765.

    Summary: entry at 1.3717, stop at 1.3765 (38 pips). 100,000 lots = £360 risk.

    Likelihood of price reaching the 2hr entry level at 1.3716?

    Current price LONG on the 2 hr appears to be extended already. It could be argued that we are in the 5th cyclical leg of the move up and the leg could be approaching an end before continuing down. Price action will need to be monitored when/if it reaches the daily level at approx. 1.3661 and re-assessed from there.

  • Matthew

    Member
    October 7, 2021 at 1:27 pm

    Updated 7 oct 2021

    NZD Pitch set on daily ceiling 0.7160 / floor 0.6803 Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Uptrend started in March 2020 and ended in Feb 2021. Since then price has ranged.

    Weekly – Clear ‘M’ reversal formation at top of pitch with LL’s and LH’s, confirming downtrend on the weekly. Current leg is down. Current action is ranging within the pitch and long-term direction in unclear. Price needs to breach the weekly candles of 16&23 aug ’21 for downtrend to continue.

    Daily – Debatable if we are in the 3rd of 5th leg of downward pattern. Move down started on 7/8 August with an arguable retracement candle on 23 sept before price continued down on leg 3. A clearer retracement leg dated 30 sept and 1&2 Oct concluded and price is currently in pull back leg. The question remains will price breach the low of 29 sept and go onto breach the range low candle of 20 August to continue the downtrend. The leg is now extended and a retracement can be expected at 0.6860 and if not there, probability of a retracement at 0.6800 is highly probable, due to the extension in the downward leg.

    Thu – Price has been ranging since 28 sept (10 days), currently between 0.6980 and 0.6860 (130 pips). In the short term, trend direction negates any positives with trading the trend and we are in a ceiling and floor ranging pattern until the highs or lows are broken. The only real trading option at this time is to trade structures at the ceiling and floor.

    The short is with the long-term trend and is the safer trade, but it can be argued that due to time, trend is not as relevant. On the 1hr TF there is a combo to left of current price at the ceiling between 0.6956 and 0.6980 (+ buffer), with control to the left.

    The Long has a combo on the 30min TF dated 30 sept around 1200 at 0.6880 and 0.6860 with control to the left. This combo has been tested twice with solid reactions. This appears as sound an area as any to gain entry (plus buffer), risk is this is counter trend but as stated, trend risk is reduced due to time expired.

  • Matthew

    Member
    October 4, 2021 at 10:29 pm

    CHF updated 04 Oct Pitch on daily ceiling 0.9472 floor 0.8933 (525 pip range) Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Ranging between the pitch since Feb 2021. Current trend is LONG making a HH above the June 2021 candle, with current Oct 2021 candle on a pull back.

    Weekly – Ranging in the upper third in an 80 pip range for last 4 weeks. Tight movement and the highs and lows need to be broken to identify next phase of price movement.

    Daily – Clear up trend on the daily and price now in middle of pitch. It can be argued that the current cycle is very extended and a return to test the HH at 0.9367 has potential for a short

    Tue – A clear short combo on the 12 hr at the top of the current price leg is a sound opportunity to enter short. Entry is around 0.9311 and exit around 0.9370 (60 pips). This is a significant move for the CHF to re test this area but a defined re-test to this area has not yet taken place. No evidence of a clear shirt and potential; for this to still occur. This is a quality short entry zone with a strong control daring back to April 2021. A reaction can be expected, the challenge is for price to reach this quality area. Price is some way off but it has to break LL which is not immediately probable as the level at 0.92137 has been strongly rejected and the down ward leg pullback short, whilst in an up-trend is already extended, therefore a move back to challenge previous highs is possible, potentially be the end of this week.

  • Matthew

    Member
    October 4, 2021 at 10:00 pm

    GBP updated 04 Oct ‘21 Pitch on daily ceiling 1.3893 floor 1.3092 Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Uptrend leg from march 20 concluded in May 21 and since then, price has been pulling back. To be in a confirmed down trend, price needs to break 1.2906 and ideally break the wick of Sep 20 and the low of 1.2675.

    Current leg down is in a ‘pull back’ phase of which time is in month 5. Classic pull back is 3-5 candles so this will either look to slow down/conclude in next 1 to 2 months and base to rise again to test previous highs, or if price continues down, probability is this could be a fuller reversal to test the low of 1.26.

    Weekly – Big picture weekly is that we are in a DBD pattern. Now in a clear downtrend on the weekly having beaten 1.36 level. Undecided if this is a retracement to return to challenge previous highs or a fuller correction down. Price is mid pitch.

    DAILY – Candles of 28 and 29 Sept broke LL and confirmed down trend. Structured trade identification to left is extremely challenging with no clear structures to trade from on the daily TF. Agreeing we are in a downtrend, we need to look above current price for potential short opportunities.

    Mon

    Tues On the daily, there is a combo RBDBD combo with an entry at 1.3661 and stop at 1.3754 (93 pips) with a DBD control dated 17 Sept at 18.00 hrs. This area can be reduced on the 2hr combo dated from 23 sept 1400 to24 sept 0800, entry at 1.3716, stop at 1.3751 (34 pips) PLUS buffer. To be safe, suggest buffer extends to control of the candle 17 sept (1600), up to 1.3765.

    Summary: entry at 1.3717, stop at 1.3765 (38 pips). 100,000 lots = £360 risk.

    Likelihood of price reaching the 2hr entry level at 1.3716?

    Current price LONG on the 2 hr appears to be extended already. It could be argues that we are in the 5th cyclical leg of the move up and the leg could be approaching an end before continuing down. Price action will need to be monitored when/if it reaches the daily level at approx. 1.3661 and re-assessed from there.

  • Matthew

    Member
    September 14, 2021 at 8:04 am

    GBP updated 14 Sept Pitch on daily ceiling 1.50959 floor 1.33145 (1,800 pip range) Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Long term LEG trend is UP, current monthly leg is DOWN, current CANDLE is up.

    After a 15 month move up starting March 20 candle, insufficient strength to break through the 1.42 high of 2018.

    Current leg is in 4th candle of pull back with signs of retracement to ceiling. Current monthly trend ranging.

    Weekly – clear 3 leg move up since March 2020 to high of 1.425 on May 2021. Current leg is retracing, indicating a challenge to recent highs. It is in its 4th candle and basing. Potential to form a RBR and move up.

    DAILY – Current LEG long is 4 candles in and if it closes above the high of 9th August, trend is confirmed UP. Price has reversed 5 times around the 1.3890 level and again, this level needs to be broken to progress higher. AS price has reversed, several structures have formed which need to be broken to pull back further but the origin of the reversal appears to be the DBD candle dated 6th Aug, 1400 on the 30 min TF, an area between 1.3889 and 1.3902 (13 pips).

    Mon

    Tue – 0900 – Price approaching previous highs, trade the short dated 6th Aug, 1400 on the 30 min TF, an area between 1.3889 and 1.3902 (13 pips) plus buffer. At some point this must break as it has had 5 tests and recent pull back has from the 10 sept 1300 candle has reduced in depth but it still went 100pips and some reaction can be expected out of this area, if not before.

    Target should be previous low of the 13 sept 0800 candle but watch price to see if it reaches the 1.3757 area.

  • Matthew

    Member
    September 6, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    NZD Pitch set on daily ceiling 0.73069 / floor 0.68051 Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Previous leg starting April 2020 is a strong move up to a high of 0.7464 in Feb 2021 and since then price has been ranging. Current price leg in Long & price appears to be re-challenging a move to the previous highs.

    Weekly – Clear ‘M’ reversal formation at top of range and clear down trend leg since May 2021. Present price leg is 2 strong pull back candles and current weeks action is basing. Direction is clearly LONG.

    Daily – Current price leg is in its 11th candle and is becoming extended. Price has pulled away from the ‘6’ and is now basing, indicating potential closure of the current price leg in the next few days with potential to pull back on a SHORT.

    Mon 6 sept 2021: On the 4hr there is a clear combo which has been tested by the 6 sept 1000 candle where price moved down. The RBR on 2 sept between 1400 and 2200 is the first challenge for price to get through on the short and is the critical indicator of strength in current price leg. The previous leg LONG is 360 pips and a short to half of this move would return 180 pips before price would be expected to return LONG.

    Entry SHORT can be expected to retest into combo structure at top of move between 0.7136 and 0.7171.

  • Matthew

    Member
    September 6, 2021 at 6:44 pm

    CHF Pitch on daily ceiling 0.92816 floor 0.89201 (360 pip range) Pull back ˅ retracement ˄

    Monthly – Downtrend since April 2019 to low of approx. 0.8757 which appears to be leg one of phase downwards. Leg two is a 3-candle retracement followed by 2 candles down and 3 which are now basing between current ‘pitch’. Trend is currently stalling but long term trend is Down.

    Weekly – Ranging mid pitch, current emphasis in slow grind up.

    Daily – Since Aug 21st, ranging between floor of 0.9099 and ceiling of 0.9207 (108 pips). Needs to break highs and lows to identify new trend, until then, trade the floors and ceilings with some confidence, accepting eventually they will break.

    Short entry: The combo on 19 aug at 0400 has a good fall away and was ‘touch tested’ on the 30 min candle dated 27 Aug at 1400 and appears the first meaningful entry SHORT. This structure is supported by a set of small basing candles on 13 august which acts as a control.

    Long entry:

    Aggressive entry LONG is amazingly a 3min control dated 6 aug at 13..45. Move away was extensive and accept many will not want to trade such a small timeframe, but then the risk is neglible.

    Mon 6 sept Price is mid table of floor and ceiling identified, wait for price to approach SHORT and LONG areas and determine if potential trade is on based upon price action on approach.

  • Matthew

    Member
    December 16, 2020 at 7:41 pm

    Hi Kevin, that is excellent news. I will be the first on the list, starting with forex. Congrats on getting the site up and running,

    Matt

  • Matthew

    Member
    October 5, 2021 at 6:12 pm

    Task was to ID long trades on NG1 via a daily pitch. Longs identified on the 8,4 and 2 hr TF’s. The bold red lines are the daily pitch, the normal pitch with colourations are the monthly pitch settings to illustrate the difference.

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/n2hzEOTP/

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